Hydroxychloroquine for treatment of non‐hospitalized adults with COVID-19: A meta-analysis of individual participant data of randomized trials
et al., Clinical and Translational Science,
Hydroxychloroquine for treatment of non‐hospitalized adults with COVID-19: A meta-analysis of individual..
, Clinical and Translational Science, doi:10.1111/cts.13468, NCT04304053
Extremely high COI (includes authors of trials playing a key role in the suppression of treatment, and funded by the Gates Foundation) IPD meta analysis of 11 HCQ outpatient treatment and prophylaxis trials, showing significantly improved viral clearance for treatment <4 days. This result is hidden in the supplementary material, and authors combine late treatment patients to generate a null result overall. Less than 20% of patients included had symptoms <4 days.
Hospitalization results for <4 days are not currently available, only combined results showing no significant difference. Early treatment hospitalization is the most important outcome analyzed in this study. We are unaware of a reason to leave these results out, other than to hide the efficacy of early treatment. For all current trials, early treatment shows 41% [28‑52%]
lower hospitalization vs. 0% [-18‑15%]
lower hospitalization for late treatment.
No individual study outcome results are provided, preventing error checking.
Authors state that "Individual data from participants who received HCQ combined with other drugs were excluded from the analysis", however this appears to have been selectively enforced - authors include patients treated with HCQ+azithromycin.
Authors indicate excluding 89 patients treated with darunavir for NCT04304053 (history)
, however the relevant paper [Mitjà]
does not show any patients receiving darunavir.
Authors state that "most [patients] were greater than or equal to 3 days from symptom onset (50–54%)", which appears to be incorrect in two ways. Table 2 shows that the cutoff was ≤3 and >3, i.e. ≥4 assuming only integer delays, and the percentages in the late treatment group range from 80-86% (of the patients where the delay is known).
Currently there are 36 HCQ early treatment studies
and meta analysis shows:
risk of no viral clearance, 32.7% lower, RR 0.67, p = 0.02, treatment 28 of 55 (50.9%), control 31 of 41 (75.6%), NNT 4.0, <4 days symptoms, day 7, Table S8.
risk of no viral clearance, 24.1% lower, RR 0.76, p = 0.07, treatment 20 of 30 (66.7%), control 29 of 33 (87.9%), NNT 4.7, <4 days symptoms, day 3, Table S8.
risk of no viral clearance, 30.4% lower, RR 0.70, p = 0.02, treatment 26 of 47 (55.3%), control 31 of 39 (79.5%), NNT 4.1, <4 days symptoms, baseline positive, day 7, Table S9.
risk of no viral clearance, 12.5% lower, RR 0.87, p = 0.22, treatment 18 of 22 (81.8%), control 29 of 31 (93.5%), NNT 8.5, <4 days symptoms, baseline positive, day 3, Table S9.
risk of no viral clearance, 6.8% lower, RR 0.93, p = 0.24, treatment 292 of 587 (49.7%), control 252 of 472 (53.4%), NNT 27, including late treatment, day 7, Table S8.
risk of no viral clearance, 4.3% lower, RR 0.96, p = 0.30, treatment 345 of 498 (69.3%), control 378 of 522 (72.4%), NNT 32, including late treatment, day 3, Table S8.
risk of no viral clearance, 6.4% lower, RR 0.94, p = 0.27, treatment 283 of 532 (53.2%), control 250 of 440 (56.8%), NNT 28, including late treatment, baseline positive, day 7, Table S9.
risk of no viral clearance, 0.7% lower, RR 0.99, p = 0.88, treatment 334 of 440 (75.9%), control 374 of 489 (76.5%), NNT 174, including late treatment, baseline positive, day 3, Table S9.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
Abstract: DOI: 10.1111/cts.13468
| Revised: 18 November 2022 | Accepted: 22 November 2022
Hydroxychloroquine for treatment of non-hospitalized
adults with COVID-19: A meta-analysis of individual
participant data of randomized trials
Oriol Mitjà1,2,3 | Gilmar Reis4,5 | David R. Boulware6 | Adam M. Spivak7 |
Ammar Sarwar8 | Christine Johnston9 | Brandon Webb10 | Michael D. Hill11 |
Davey Smith12 | Peter Kremsner13,14 | Marla Curran15 | David Carter16 |
Jim Alexander15 | Marc Corbacho1
| Todd C. Lee6 | Katherine Huppler Hullsiek6
Emily G. McDonald17 | Rachel Hess7
| Michael Hughes8 | Jared M. Baeten9 |
Ilan Schwartz18 | Luanne Metz11 | Lawrence Richer18 | Kara W. Chew19 |
Eric Daar20 | David Wohl21 | Michael Dunne15
Fight AIDS and Infectious Diseases Foundation, Barcelona, Spain
Hospital Universitari Germans Trias i Pujol, Badalona, Spain
Lihir Medical Center–International SOS, Lihir Island, Papua New Guinea
Research Division, Cardresearch Cardiologia Assistencial e de Pesquisa, Pontifícia Universidade Católica de Minas Gerais, Bello Horizonte, Brazil
Cytel Inc., Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada
Division of Infectious Diseases and International Medicine, Department of Medicine, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, Minnesota, USA
University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
Harvard Medical School, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
Department of Medicine and Laboratory Medicine and Pathology, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington, USA
Intermountain Health Care, University of Utah, Salt Lake City, Utah, USA
University of Calgary, Calgary, Alberta, Canada
Division of Infectious Diseases & Global Public Health, UC San Diego School of Medicine, San Diego, California, USA
University Hospital of Tübingen, Tübingen, Germany
Centre de Recherches Médicales de Lambaréné, Lambaréné, Gabon
Bill & Melinda Gates Medical Research Institute, Cambridge, Massachusetts, USA
MMS Holdings, Canton, Michigan, USA
Division of General Internal Medicine, McGill University Health Center, Montreal, Quebec, Canada
University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada
Division of Infectious Diseases, Department of Medicine, David Geffen School of Medicine at University of California, Los Angeles, California, USA
Lundquist Institute at Harbor-UCLA Medical Center, Torrance, California, USA
School of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, Chapel Hill, North Carolina, USA
Oriol Mitjà, Fight AIDS and Infectious Diseases Foundation, Barcelona, Spain, Ctra. de Canyet s/n • Hosp. Univ. Germans Trias i Pujol, 08916
Badalona, Barcelona, Spain.
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© 2023 The Authors. Clinical and Translational Science published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Society for Clinical Pharmacology and Therapeutics.
Clin Transl Sci. 2023;00:1–12.
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