Mitchell et al., Markedly Lower Rates of Coronavirus Infection and Fatality in Malaria-Endemic Regions – A Clue As to.., SSRN, doi:10.2139/ssrn.3586954 (Preprint)
Analysis of COVID-19 amongst 2.4B people shows a wide counterintuitive disparity between well-developed and less-developed countries, with more affluent countries about one hundred times more likely to be infected and die due to COVID-19. They find the effect is most apparent when comparing to countries with the highest rates of endemic malaria. Since travelers to malaria-endemic countries are likely to be taking antimalarial prophylaxis and there is evidence of efficacy with COVID-19, authors find the data highly probative for the hypothesis that prophylactic antimalarial use by incoming visitors markedly attenuates a country’s COVID-19 fatality rate. While authors do not adjust for age differences, those adjustments can only account for a small fraction of the observed difference.
This study is excluded in the after exclusion results of meta
analysis:
excessive unadjusted differences between groups.
Abstract: Markedly Lower Rates of Coronavirus Infection and Fatality in
Malaria-Endemic Regions – A Clue to Treatment?
Abstract
This comparative analysis of coronavirus infection and death among 2.4 billion persons
around the world demonstrates a wide (two orders of magnitude or one hundred-fold) disparity in
coronavirus fatality rates between well-developed and less-developed countries. The difference is
backward or counterintuitive. The current data demonstrates the surprising fact that those in more
affluent countries are about one hundred times more likely to become infected with coronavirus
infection and die. This effect is most apparent when these countries are compared to countries
with the highest rates of endemic malaria. It is known that the novel coronavirus, also known as
COVID-19, originated in Wuhan China and is transmitted from one country to another by travelers
from a coronavirus-infested area. It is also known that travelers to malaria-endemic countries are
likely to be taking antimalarial prophylaxis. There is also evidence that antimalarials, notably
hydroxychloroquine, may have some efficacy in the treatment of coronavirus. In light of these
facts, the mortality data presented here is highly probative for the hypothesis that prophylactic
antimalarial use by its incoming visitors markedly attenuates a country’s coronavirus fatality rate.
Keywords
coronavirus, COVID-19, mortality, antimalarial, decrease, Africa, death, disparity,
protective, treatment, malaria, SARS-CoV-2, epidemiology, statistics, migration, pharmacology
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