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0 0.5 1 1.5 2+ Case 8% Improvement Relative Risk c19hcq.org Gendelman et al. HCQ for COVID-19 PrEP Favors HCQ Favors control
Continuous Hydroxychloroquine or Colchicine Therapy Does Not Prevent Infection With SARS-CoV-2: Insights From a Large Healthcare Database Analysis
Gendelman et al., Autoimmunity Reviews, 19:7, July 2020, doi:10.1016/j.autrev.2020.102566
5 May 2020    Source   PDF   Share   Tweet
Very small study of rheumatic disease/autoimmune disorder patients showing no significant difference but with only 3 chronic HCQ patient cases. Only considers people tested at a time when primarily symptomatic cases were tested.
Other research shows that the risk of COVID-19 for systemic autoimmune disease patients is much higher overall, Ferri et al. show OR 4.42, p<0.001 [Ferri], which is the observed real-world risk, taking into account factors such as these patients potentially being more careful to avoid exposure.
Adjusting for the difference in baseline risk using the result in Ferri et al. shows substantial benefit for HCQ, RR 0.211, but with only 3 HCQ cases the result is inconclusive. More recent studies with rheumatic disease/autoimmune condition patients provide higher confidence.
risk of case, 8.1% lower, RR 0.92, p = 0.88, treatment 3 of 36 (8.3%), control 1,314 of 14,484 (9.1%), NNT 135.
Effect extraction follows pre-specified rules prioritizing more serious outcomes. Submit updates
This study is excluded in the after exclusion results of meta analysis: not fully adjusting for the different baseline risk of systemic autoimmune patients.
Gendelman et al., 5 May 2020, retrospective, database analysis, Israel, peer-reviewed, 5 authors.
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