Prediction of mortality in hospitalized Egyptian patients with Coronavirus disease-2019: A multicenter retrospective study
Muhammad M Abdelghaffar, Dalia Omran, Ahmed Elgebaly, Eshak I Bahbah, Shimaa Afify, Mohamed Alsoda, Mohamed El-Shiekh, Enass S Elsayed, Soha S Shaaban, Samah Abdelhafez, Khaled Elkelany, Ayman A Eltayar, Omnia S Ali, Lamiaa Kamal, Ahmed M Heiba, Ahmad El Askary, Hend Ibrahim Shousha
PLOS ONE, doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0262348
We aimed to assess the epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory characteristics associated with mortality among hospitalized Egyptian patients with COVID-19. A multicenter, retrospective study was conducted on all polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed COVID-19 cases admitted through the period from April to July 2020. A generalized linear model was reconstructed with covariates based on predictor's statistical significance and clinically relevance. The odds ratio (OR) was calculated by using stepwise logistic regression modeling. A total of 3712 hospitalized patients were included; of them, 900 deaths were recorded (24.2%). Compared to survived patients, non-survived patients were more likely to be older than 60 years (65.7%), males (53.6%) diabetic (37.6%), hypertensive (37.2%), and had chronic renal insufficiency (9%). Non-survived patients were less likely to receive azithromycin (p <0.001), anticoagulants (p <0.001), and steroids (p <0.001). We found that age � 60 years old (OR = 2.82, 95% CI 2.05-3.86; p <0.0001), diabetes mellitus (
Supporting information S1
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'abstract': '<jats:p>We aimed to assess the epidemiological, clinical, and laboratory characteristics '
'associated with mortality among hospitalized Egyptian patients with COVID-19. A multicenter, '
'retrospective study was conducted on all polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed COVID-19 '
'cases admitted through the period from April to July 2020. A generalized linear model was '
'reconstructed with covariates based on predictor’s statistical significance and clinically '
'relevance. The odds ratio (OR) was calculated by using stepwise logistic regression modeling. '
'A total of 3712 hospitalized patients were included; of them, 900 deaths were recorded '
'(24.2%). Compared to survived patients, non-survived patients were more likely to be older '
'than 60 years (65.7%), males (53.6%) diabetic (37.6%), hypertensive (37.2%), and had chronic '
'renal insufficiency (9%). Non-survived patients were less likely to receive azithromycin (p '
'<0.001), anticoagulants (p <0.001), and steroids (p <0.001). We found that age ≥ 60 '
'years old (OR = 2.82, 95% CI 2.05–3.86; p <0.0001), diabetes mellitus (OR = 1.58, 95% CI '
'1.14–2.19; p = 0.006), hypertension (OR = 1.69, 95% CI 1.22–2.36; p = 0.002), chronic renal '
'insufficiency (OR = 3.15, 95% CI 1.84–5.38; p <0.0001), tachycardia (OR = 1.65, 95% CI '
'1.22–2.23; p <0.001), hypoxemia (OR = 5.69, 95% CI 4.05–7.98; p <0.0001), GCS <13 '
'(OR 515.2, 95% CI 148.5–1786.9; p <0.0001), the use of therapeutic dose of anticoagulation '
'(OR = 0.4, 95% CI 0.22–0.74, p = 0.003) and azithromycin (OR = 0.16, 95% CI 0.09–0.26; p '
'<0.0001) were independent negative predictors of mortality. In conclusion, age >60 '
'years, comorbidities, tachycardia, hypoxemia, and altered consciousness level are independent '
'predictors of mortality among Egyptian hospitalized patients with COVID-19. On the other '
'hand, the use of anticoagulants and azithromycin is associated with reduced '
'mortality.</jats:p>',
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